Published: November 22, 2008 12:13 am         

Prediction: OU will beat Raiders

Oklahoma will play Oklahoma State next week for a shot at the Big 12 South championship.

Book it now.

The Sooners will beat No. 2-ranked Texas Tech in Norman tonight.

OU coach Bob Stoops might question how loud the Sooners fans are, but the home crowd certainly has been Stoops’ biggest ally in his 10 seasons in Norman.

OU has a 59-2 home record under Stoops, with the lone losses coming to Oklahoma State, 16-13 in 2001, and to Texas Christian, 17-10 in 2005.

The Sooners are 12-0 against ranked teams over that period at home.

The Sooners have won 23 straight at home, the longest in the nation. They are closing in on the school record of 25.

Texas Tech has not played well in Norman against Stoops, losing 27-13 in 2000, 60-15 in 2002, 28-13 in 2004 and 34-24 last season.

Tech, to its credit, has played well on the road this season, but winning at Texas A&M and Kansas State in 2008 is different than beating the nation’s No. 5 team in Norman.

Sam Bradford’s home statistics are outstanding.

As a freshman, he completed 135 of 178 passes for 1,876 yards and 25 touchdowns as opposed to two interceptions in games at Owen Field.

This season, he’s 120 of 164 for 1,968 yards and 19 touchdowns as opposed to three interceptions.

Critics say OU’s defense won’t be able to stop Tech’s high-flying Graham Harrell, but Bradford, given time, is an equally effective weapon, if not a better one.

OU can match Tech’s receiver corp man for man, Michael Crabtree or not. The problems in the running game appear to be straightened out with Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray running at full strength.

OU’s defense has been criticized but the Sooners still lead the Big 12 in total defense. What the Sooners defense has to do is prevent the big play — bend but don’t break.

Both teams are outstanding in forcing turnovers.

OU has a plus 16 turnover margin. Tech is plus 10.

Whoever can get an interception or recover a fumble will have an edge. The Sooners did not force a turnover in a 45-35 loss to Texas.

As much as the Sooners’ special teams have been criticized, OU still leads the Big 12 in kickoff returns.

If the Sooners give up a kickoff return for a score like they did against Cincinnati, Texas and Texas A&M, they could be in trouble.

But kicker Matt Moreland is getting more into his kickoffs. He could be the key figure. The more he kicks into the end zone, the better the OU coverage team is.

The early seven-point spread in favor of the Sooners probably was too much. Tech, right now, can argue it is No. 1 after beating Texas and overwhelming Oklahoma State two weeks ago.

If the game was in Lubbock, Tech would be the logical favorite.

But it’s not.

Take the Sooners in a wild one, 45-42, with the faith Jimmy Stevens can make a big field goal at home.



Campbell is a News & Eagle sports writer.