Wheat prediction?

By Robert Barron, Staff Writer

April 21, 2008 12:21 pm

— Although the recent rain isn’t hurting anything, the outlook for a good crop still depends a lot on where you are.
“Mostly, you never complain about moisture,” said J.C. Hobbs, assistance extension specialist at the Garfield County OSU Extension Center.
“The outlook depends on where you are. Locally, it’s not looking bad, but as you get further west it’s dry,” he said.
There are some disease issues, but overall the wheat crop picture is not bad at present. It will be easier to tell closer to wheat harvest. Hobbs thinks Garfield County will have a good wheat crop, but getting very far outside Garfield County, there could be problems. Crop watchers predict Oklahoma to have a below average year statewide. A lot of wheat didn’t get a good stand because it did not get moisture when it was needed.
Last year the Oklahoma Panhandle was the only area of the state that had wheat and had very good prices. Overall they did well, but this year Hobbs predicts their crops will be down.
Crop prices should be good this year, however. Expectations are for wheat to sell for $8.50 per bushel on average in Oklahoma. That price will probably hold until foreign crops from Russia, Europe and China start coming in about August. Prices may drop as much as $2 per bushel then to an average price of $6.50. However, Oklahoma historically averages between $3 and $4 per bushel.
“It’s going to be darn better than average this year. The only problems are that production costs are going up, but not enough to erode prices at $6 wheat,” Hobbs said.
Recently wheat prices were as high as $10, but many grain elevators would not accept it because they could not cover their margin at that price.
Overall Hobbs said the northern and eastern side of Garfield County seems to produce better wheat. An area from Garber south to Marshall usually does better than the west side of the county.