Wheat could be worth millions, if forecasts hold

By Kevin Hassler, Associate Editor

July 12, 2008 12:45 am

— North central Oklahoma’s wheat crop this year could be worth nearly $500 million if production forecasts hold.
The latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service shows Oklahoma’s wheat crop is expected to be 171 million bushels. That figure is up 9 percent from last month and a whopping 74 percent above last year’s rain-ruined crop.
Figures from NASS show harvest for the north central region, which includes Garfield, Grant, Alfalfa, Major, Woods, Woodward, Kay and Noble counties, is expected to top 61.8 million bushels, more than three times the harvest of 17.6 million bushels last year.
According to the Enid area price for wheat of $7.991/2 per bushel provided Friday by ADM, the crop value for the north central region is $494 million. Statewide, using the same price, the total crop value is nearly $1.37 billion.
“They needed a crop,” said Jeff Bedwell, Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service ag educator in Garfield County, of area producers. “We suffered some tough times. Basically, it had guys wondering if there was ever going to be another wheat crop.”
He was referring to the last two years of dismal harvests. In 2006, a prolonged drought limited Oklahoma wheat production to just 81.6 million bushels. Last year, prospects for the crop were much better, but a freeze in April, disease and late rain limited statewide production to 98 million bushels.
Much of the grain in northwest Oklahoma last year wasn’t even cut because farmers couldn’t get combines into their fields.
This year, the crop didn’t suffer from any of the same pre-harvest problems as were seen last year, Bedwell said.
The only district seeing a decline this year is the Panhandle and extreme northwest Oklahoma. That area continues to suffer from drought that is being compared to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Wheat production there is expected to total 9.7 million bushels, down from 23.4 million bushels last year.
Test weights in the Enid area suffered some after harvest started because of rain, Bedwell said, but still remained good. To be grade No. 1 and collect a higher price, wheat must be at least 60 pounds per bushel, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture.
When harvest started, Bedwell said, test weights in some places were as high as 63 and 65 pounds per bushel. When the rain came, test weights dropped to as low as the mid-50s, he said.
For the most part, though, test weights ranged from 57 to 60 pounds per bushel, Bedwell said, which would put wheat at grade No. 2.
Yields throughout the state “were exceptionally high,” said Mike Schulte, marketing director for Okla-homa Wheat Commission. He put the average range statewide at 42-45 bushels an acre.
In northwest Oklahoma, yields range from 30-50 bushels an acre on average, Bedwell said, although some areas saw yields up to about 80 bushels an acre.